By Onu Okorie

OPEC+ has opted to keep its oil production targets unchanged for November, reinforcing expectations that the group will make no major adjustments to output policy until next year as the Middle East conflict continues to disrupt global supplies.
The decision was reached on Sunday during a brief online meeting involving seven key members of the producer alliance — Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman.
Although OPEC+ has been gradually raising production targets through 2026 after years of supply cuts, much of the planned increase has failed to reach the market because of disruptions linked to the war involving Iran.
Oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz have improved, but exports remain well below normal levels, leaving the market vulnerable to further disruptions.
“Despite rising flows through the Strait of Hormuz, their output levels remain well below quota,” UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said, adding that the oil market therefore remains tight.
Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, remained above $100 a barrel despite falling on Friday after European leaders agreed to a request from US President Donald Trump to release diesel reserves. The benchmark was trading around $73 a barrel before the Iran war began in late February.
The conflict has also complicated OPEC+’s longer-term production plans. An assessment of members’ production capacity — a key process for determining their 2027 quotas — has been delayed because uncertainty over future production levels has increased, industry sources said.
OPEC data shows that the seven core members produced about 25 million barrels per day in August, an increase of 630,000 barrels per day from July. However, production was still roughly 5 million barrels per day below February’s prewar level.
The group still has around 2 million barrels per day of production cuts in place covering most of its members. Any decision on how to distribute future increases is expected to depend on the delayed capacity review, making significant changes to output unlikely before 2027.
OPEC+ ministers are scheduled to meet again on November 1, while the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, a separate body that monitors market conditions but does not set production policy, also met on Sunday.
For oil consumers and producers, the message from Sunday’s meeting is clear: despite efforts to increase supply, the market remains constrained, with geopolitical uncertainty continuing to limit how much crude reaches global buyers.