Nigeria’s crude oil production has reached its highest level in over six years, even as the capital required to sustain that momentum remains scarce, according to the Society of Energy Editors of Nigeria (SEE) in its Q4 2026 outlook released early this week .
Official figures show Nigeria’s liquids production averaged 1.56 million barrels per day in August, a 74-month high that exceeded the country’s OPEC quota by 4 percent. The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission attributed the modest monthly improvement partly to the resolution of operational challenges at ExxonMobil’s Erha field, which had been under force majeure since July.
The production milestone comes as the seven OPEC+ countries, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman confirmed they will maintain November production at September levels, continuing the pause in output increases that began in October. Nigeria was not among the seven nations participating in the additional voluntary adjustments.
Chevron’s Counter-Cyclical Bet
Against this backdrop, Chevron has reaffirmed its long-term commitment to Nigeria, announcing progress across exploration, deepwater development, and gas monetization that sets it apart from peers who have retreated from the country’s onshore sector.
Jim Swartz, Chairman and Managing Director of Chevron’s Nigerian operations, said the company “takes a long-term view of Nigeria,” pointing to continued investment across its portfolio since the Petroleum Industry Act took effect.
Chevron disclosed discoveries at Meji NW-1, Delta South AA, and Awodi-07, entry into petroleum prospecting licenses 2000 and 2001 through farm-in agreements, acquisition of deepwater block PPL 2010, and renewal of Oil Prospecting Licence 215 are good developments for the industry.
The company is also advancing the Bonga Southwest/Aparo and Owowo/Usan deepwater projects and planning infill drilling at the Agbami field and non-operated Usan hub to offset natural production decline.
The Capital Constraint
SEEN’s outlook warns, however, that Chevron’s deepwater focus reflects a broader pattern: international capital is concentrating in offshore assets that sit physically beyond the reach of onshore community conflicts and pipeline sabotage. The onshore and shallow-water segments, now dominated by indigenous independents, face a punishing funding environment.
The Society projects that the average cost of securing a five-year senior secured reserve-based lending facility for a Nigerian independent will remain between 12 and 15 percent per annum in hard currency, if available at all. International commercial banks and development finance institutions are pricing Nigerian upstream debt at what SEEN terms a “Violence-Adjusted Cost of Capital,” where every security incident widens the risk premium.
“The volume uplift from brownfield infill drilling and short-cycle tie-backs—likely between 50,000 and 80,000 barrels per day—will be insufficient to offset structural decline in maturing basins unless security costs are tamed,” the outlook states.

SEEN highlights a critical risk for Q4: the intersection of contract fatigue and fiscal squeeze. As oil prices oscillate between war premium and negotiation expectations, the government’s revenue position to fund security surveillance contracts and military joint task forces tightens. A liquidity crisis in the protective architecture, coinciding with rising economic hardship on the waterways, creates conditions for a spike in illegal bunkering and sabotage.
“If a major trunk line such as the Trans-Niger Pipeline suffers a prolonged outage, the resulting force majeure event would be seized upon by insurers to hike war risk premiums further,” the Society warns.
The outlook calls for an urgent transition from purely kinetic, state-funded security to a “Pipeline Protection 2.0” framework—community-led, technology-driven, and co-financed by operators themselves to insulate it from federal budget cycles.