By Onu Okorie
Nigeria’s petrol supply remained below the regulatory benchmark in August, with average Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) consumption standing at 41.5 million litres per day against a benchmark of 50 million litres, the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) has disclosed.
The figure represents an 8.5 million-litre daily shortfall, equivalent to 17 per cent, with PMS consumption covering only 83 per cent of the established benchmark.
The disclosure was contained in the NMDPRA’s August 2026 factsheet on the state of the midstream and downstream petroleum sector, which provides data on petroleum product supply and consumption, refinery performance, strategic inventories and gas operations.
The report also showed that petrol stock sufficiency stood at 22.9 days, leaving a deficit of 7.1 days against the Authority’s 30-day strategic sufficiency threshold.
Cooking gas recorded a similar inventory challenge, with Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) stock estimated at 17.2 days of sufficiency, 12.8 days below the 30-day benchmark.
The situation was markedly different for diesel and aviation fuel.
Automotive Gas Oil (AGO) recorded 51.6 days of stock sufficiency, representing a surplus of 21.6 days above the benchmark, while aviation fuel, or ATK, had 82.3 days of sufficiency, 52.3 days above the regulatory threshold.
Diesel, LPG demand rise
The NMDPRA data also revealed divergent consumption patterns across petroleum products.
While PMS demand remained below its benchmark, AGO consumption exceeded its established level, averaging 14.3 million litres per day compared with a benchmark of 14 million litres.
The increase represents an additional 300,000 litres per day, or 2.1 per cent above the benchmark.
Aviation fuel consumption averaged 2.8 million litres per day, slightly below its three-million-litre benchmark.
LPG, however, recorded a significant increase in daily consumption, rising to 4.8 kilotonnes per day against a benchmark of 3.9 kilotonnes.
This represents a 23.1 per cent increase over the benchmark, underscoring the growing demand for cooking gas despite the relatively low level of strategic inventory.
Dangote refinery boosts domestic supply
The Dangote Refinery emerged as a major contributor to domestic refining activity during the month, recording average capacity utilisation of 105.21 per cent.
According to the factsheet, the refinery produced an average 41.94 million litres of PMS per day, alongside 18.01 million litres of AGO and 24.48 million litres of aviation fuel.
However, not all of the output was absorbed by the domestic market.
Domestic receipts from the refinery averaged 35.87 million litres per day for PMS, 12.37 million litres for AGO and 3.07 million litres for aviation fuel.
The refinery also exported substantial volumes, averaging 9.73 million litres of PMS, 8.75 million litres of AGO and 21.30 million litres of aviation fuel per day.
The figures point to an increasingly significant role for domestic refining in Nigeria’s petroleum supply chain, while also showing that a portion of local refinery output is being directed towards export markets.
Modular refineries post mixed results
Performance among modular refineries was uneven during the reporting period.
WalterSmith recorded average capacity utilisation of 64.77 per cent, while Edo Refinery operated at 90.43 per cent. Aradel recorded 58.77 per cent utilisation, while OPAC posted 16.97 per cent.
Combined AGO supply from the listed modular refineries averaged 0.79 million litres per day.
The NMDPRA factsheet, however, showed that the refineries operated by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) recorded no production during the period under review.
Gas capacity rises above actual utilisation
The report also highlighted the scale of Nigeria’s gas-processing infrastructure.
It stated that the country had 47 gas-processing plants with a combined installed capacity of 16.187 billion cubic feet per day.
Actual average gas processed during August stood at 8.258 billion cubic feet per day, indicating that significant installed processing capacity remained available beyond the volume being processed.
Gas utilisation was spread across key sectors of the economy.
Gas-to-power consumption averaged 0.537 billion cubic feet per day, while commercial users accounted for 0.590 billion cubic feet per day. Gas-based industries consumed an average 0.633 billion cubic feet per day.
The figures reinforce the importance of gas infrastructure to power generation, industrial production and the wider energy supply chain.
Regulatory implications
The August factsheet presents a mixed picture of Nigeria’s downstream petroleum market.
The strong capacity utilisation recorded by the Dangote Refinery and output from some modular refineries point to an expanding role for domestic refining. However, the 22.9-day PMS inventory and 17.2-day LPG stock levels remained below the NMDPRA’s 30-day strategic benchmark.
The inventory gap is particularly significant for petrol and LPG because both products are central to household mobility, commercial activity and energy consumption.
The data also highlights the need to sustain refinery operations, improve domestic product availability and strengthen strategic inventories, particularly where stock levels remain below regulatory thresholds.
For AGO and aviation fuel, the inventory position was considerably stronger, with both products maintaining stock levels substantially above the 30-day benchmark.
Overall, the August 2026 figures point to a downstream petroleum sector in transition: domestic refining is becoming more prominent, but supply-demand balances and strategic inventory levels remain uneven across major petroleum products.