Since the 1990s, different governments have promised to restructure the corporation. Several committees were formed. White papers were produced. Bills were introduced. Foreign consultants were hired. Yet, meaningful reform always seemed to slow down once powerful interests felt threatened.

The passage of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) in 2021 was presented as a turning point. Under the law, NNPC changed from a government corporation into a limited liability company known as NNPC Limited. The new structure was supposed to prepare the company for commercial operations and eventual public listing on the stock exchange.

That transition raised hopes. Nigerians expected greater accountability. They expected annual reports to become clearer. They expected professional management. They expected the old culture of secrecy to disappear.

In 2023 during at an Adipec and Nigeria Oil and Gas (NOG) conference, the then Group CEO of NNPC Ltd, Mr Mele Kyari declared that the company was about 80% ready for an IPO (Initial Public Offer). He stressed that President Bola Tinubu was “completely committed” to taking NNPC Ltd to the market to raise capital and operate as a fully commercialized entity.

However, progress toward the IPO has remained slow and uncertain. The timelines have shifted repeatedly. Government officials continue to speak about readiness, restructuring and valuation exercises, but the public still does not know exactly when the shares will be sold, how much will be offered, or who may already be positioning behind the scenes to benefit from the process.

This delay has naturally increased public suspicion. Many Nigerians believe the postponement is not caused by technical difficulties alone. They suspect that political and economic interests are struggling over who controls the future ownership structure of the company. Oil remains Nigeria’s most powerful economic sector. Whoever controls NNPC controls influence, contracts, foreign exchange opportunities and enormous financial power.

An IPO of such a strategic institution cannot happen without fierce political calculations.

The idea behind the IPO is simple. The government wants to sell part of NNPC to private investors through the stock market. In theory, this would make the company more transparent, more profitable and less dependent on politics. It would also allow ordinary Nigerians and institutional investors to own shares in the country’s biggest economic asset.

While the proposal sounds attractive on paper, many citizens are asking difficult questions: Why has the IPO been delayed for so long? Is the process truly designed for national interest or for powerful insiders? Why are Nigeria’s government-owned refineries still largely inactive while private players like Dangote Refinery continue to dominate discussions about the future of fuel supply? And why does every major reform around NNPC often come with suspicion, political drama and accusations of underhand practices?

These questions are not accidental. They come from decades of mistrust between Nigerians and the institutions managing the country’s oil wealth.

Proponents of the IPO argue that Nigeria has little choice but to commercialise NNPC fully. They point to successful national oil companies in countries like Saudi Arabia, Brazil and Norway. They argue that state-owned companies perform better when they are exposed to market discipline and shareholder scrutiny.

There is logic in that argument. An IPO could force NNPC to publish cleaner accounts, reduce waste and improve operational efficiency. Investors would demand better governance standards. Financial reporting would become more difficult to manipulate. Political interference might reduce because private shareholders would expect profitability rather than patronage.

The government also hopes the IPO can raise substantial revenue at a time when the country faces rising debt, currency instability and budget pressure. Foreign investors may see the offer as an opportunity to participate in Africa’s largest oil economy.

Another possible intention is strategic competition. The emergence of Dangote Refinery has changed the structure of the downstream oil sector. For decades, NNPC remained the dominant force despite its inefficiencies. Today, a privately owned refinery has emerged with the capacity to shape fuel supply, pricing discussions and regional energy influence.

That reality may have increased pressure on NNPC to modernise quickly or risk becoming less relevant. But one major challenge confronting the NNPC IPO idea is credibility.

NNPC’s history has been deeply controversial. Allegations of opaque accounting, missing oil revenues, inflated contracts and politically connected deals have followed the institution for decades. Even when reforms are announced, many citizens suspect that insiders are positioning themselves quietly for future gains.

This suspicion is not entirely baseless.

Nigeria has a history where privatisation exercises often benefit a small elite class. Public assets are sometimes sold below value to politically connected investors. Ordinary citizens are frequently excluded from meaningful participation despite promises of transparency.

That history explains why many Nigerians fear that the NNPC IPO could become another elite transfer scheme disguised as reform.

Questions are already emerging. Who will determine the company’s valuation? Will the books be independently audited? Will hidden liabilities suddenly disappear before listing? Will politically exposed persons use proxies to corner strategic shares? Will foreign investors dominate ownership while Nigerians remain spectators?

These concerns are important because trust is essential in any public offering.

The government cannot ask citizens to invest in NNPC while refusing to answer longstanding questions about oil revenue management, subsidy spending and refinery failures.

For years, Nigeria remained one of the world’s biggest crude oil producers while importing most of its refined petroleum products. The country spent trillions of naira subsidising fuel imports despite owning four state refineries. Those refineries — located in Port Harcourt, Warri and Kaduna — became symbols of waste, corruption and policy failure.

Successive governments announced turnaround maintenance projects countless times. Huge sums were approved. Contractors were paid. Deadlines were extended repeatedly. Yet, the refineries remained largely inactive or underperforming.

Many Nigerians eventually concluded that some powerful individuals benefited more from importing fuel than from refining it locally. The importation system created opportunities for subsidy fraud, inflated contracts and rent-seeking.

Now, Nigeria stands at an important crossroads as the rise of Dangote Refinery has raised new questions about competition, concentration of power and the future structure of Nigeria’s energy economy.

We, at DAILY NEWSCRAFT strongly perceive the proposed NNPC IPO as a defining moment in Nigeria’s

political sincerity, institutional maturity and economic direction.

If conducted transparently, fairly and professionally, it could mark the beginning of genuine reform in Nigeria’s oil sector. And this is not an optional imperative.