The Peering Advocacy and Advancement Centre in Africa (PAACA) has urged the Federal Government to either suspend or reject the planned introduction of a 15 percent import duty on Premium Motor Spirit (petrol) and Automotive Gas Oil (diesel) until domestic supply capacity reaches 80 percent to meet demand.

The centre disclosed that currently the Dangote Refinery meets only about 40 percent of national demand and warned that restricting imports now will not stabilize supply; it will create scarcity, sharp rise in pump prices as well as worsen the current economic hardship.

President Bola Tinubu had recently endorsed the decision to impose a 15 percent fuel import duty, scheduled to take effect from November 21, 2025. The policy, as enshrined in the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), aims to wean Nigeria off its dependence on imported fuel and strengthen the domestic refining, particularly, the new operational Dangote refinery

The Executive Director of PAACA, Ezenwa Nwagwu, at a press conference in Abuja, said data show that domestic refining is not yet sufficient to meet national demand, and forcing importers out of the market would lead to scarcity and higher prices.

He said imported petrol currently lands at about N802 per litre, while locally refined products land at N929.72 per litre, adding thata 15 per cent tariff would further increase costs, pushing the pump price up by between N140 and N165 per litre across the country.

He noted that the Dangote Refinery, which the policy appears set to favour, currently supplies about 40 percent of national demand and still imports components for its own blending, making the case for import restriction premature.

Nwagwu warned that depending on one major supplier could give that company control over pricing and distribution while sidelining independent depot owners and marketers who have invested heavily in infrastructure. He urged the government to suspend the proposed tariff until domestic refining capacity reaches at least 80 per cent of national needs.

He said, “Our call today is straightforward. The Federal Government must suspend or reject the proposed tariff, expose and correct its economic, social, and ethical flaws, and educate the public on the dangers of monopolies in vital sectors like fuel, cement, and food. Above all, it must promote transparency and fair competition to protect consumers, workers, and small businesses across the country.

“The facts are clear. The Dangote Refinery currently meets only about 40 per cent of national fuel demand. Restricting imports now will not stabilize supply; it will create scarcity. Imported petrol today lands at roughly N802 per litre, while the locally refined product from Dangote lands at N929.72 per litre.

 “Adding a 15 per cent tariff will only make things worse, increasing pump prices by between N140 and N165 per litre and driving up the cost of transportation, food, and essential goods.”

He advocated for transparency in refinery supply agreements and the monthly publication of refinery output, import volumes, and landing costs by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority.

Nwagwu recommended establishing a downstream competition framework under the Petroleum Industry Act and an energy market monitoring unit under the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission to prevent cartel formation.

According to him, true energy security requires multiple suppliers, not the protection of a single player, adding that government policies must prioritise citizens’ welfare.

Meanwhile, the General Manager of Government, Joint Venture, and External Relation at Heritage Energy, Mr. Soa Adebawo, recently warned that the 15 percent directly increases the landing cost of fuel. He said estimation from the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) showed that the tariff alone could add roughly N99.72 per littre of petrol. “In a market already at the mercy of foreign exchange swings, marketers say this could land squarely on consumers,” he added.