* Lament govt neglect of real manufacturing sector
* As youth unemployment surges 5.6%
By Teddy Nwanunobi And Onu Okorie
Experts have faulted the latest report by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), which said that Nigeria’s economy expanded by 4.43 per cent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, describing it as consumption-induced.
Ordinarily, this should be good news for economic analysts, given that its fastest second-quarter performance for the country in five years.
Experts, however, lamented that government has neglected the real manufacturing sector.
Beneath the headline number lies a familiar and troubling pattern: a country whose growth is increasingly powered by services and trade, while the productive, job-creating sectors that ought to anchor a “huge-potential” economy continue to underperform.
The NBS report shows manufacturing, the sector economists routinely describe as the backbone of industrialisation, mass employment and export diversification, grew by just 3.24 percent in real terms during the quarter.
Its share of nominal GDP slipped to 7.72 per cent, down from 7.81 per cent a year earlier. Services, by contrast, expanded by 4.60 per cent and now account for 56.62 per cent of total output, up from 56.53 per cent in the same period of 2025.
The broader industry sector, which includes manufacturing, construction, and oil grew 3.96 per cent, a sharp deceleration from the 7.46 per cent recorded in Q2 2025, even as crude oil production climbed to 1.72 million barrels per day, its highest level since 2022.
Analysts say the figures confirm a structural imbalance that has defined the Nigerian economy for over a decade: growth driven by trade, telecoms, real estate and finance, with too little translated into factory floors, farms and factories that absorb the country’s youth labour force.
Trade remained the single largest contributor to real GDP at 17.93 per cent, ahead of crop production at 17.66 per cent, real estate at 12.71 per cent, and telecommunications at 9.72 per cent, sectors that, while legitimate drivers of output, are not typically associated with the scale of formal job creation that manufacturing provides.
But with Nigeria’s population growing faster than formal job creation, a widening gap between headline growth and manufacturing performance raises questions about how inclusive the current recovery actually is.
The Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) has, in its own assessments of the quarter, painted a picture that complicates any celebration of the headline figure.
In its Q2 2026 Manufacturers’ CEOs Confidence Index, MAN reported that business sentiment recovered to 52.1 points from 48.7 in the first quarter but attributed this largely to expectations of policy relief rather than actual improvement in operating conditions.
The association’s Director-General, Segun Ajayi-Kadir, has argued that the quality of growth matters as much as its pace, and that government needs a deliberate agenda not just for overall GDP expansion but specifically for lifting manufacturing’s share of it.
Two in every three manufacturing CEOs surveyed by MAN cited high commercial lending rates, with the Monetary Policy Rate sitting at 26.5 percent during the quarter as a major disincentive to production.
Only 27 per cent of executives found government infrastructure spending encouraging to the sector, and manufacturers said multiple tax collectors continued to burden them despite the new Nigeria Tax Act.
MAN has set a target of lifting manufacturing’s real GDP growth to 3.1 per cent and its GDP contribution to over 10 per cent in 2026.
The Q2 growth figure of 3.24 per cent is technically within reach of that annual target, but the sector’s nominal GDP share continues to drift below the levels MAN says are needed for the “manufacturing wins, Nigeria wins” ambition the association has publicly championed.
On their part, Nigerian Association of Chambers of Commerce, Industry, Mines and Agriculture (NACCIMA) was contacted for comment on the Q2 2026 figures but had not responded by press time.
But the chamber has historically taken a consistent line on GDP releases of this kind, that’s flagging the mismatch between agriculture and manufacturing’s contribution to output and the investment still required in financing, infrastructure, logistics, and energy to convert that output into sustained industrial growth.
Independent economists have separately cautioned that Nigeria’s pattern of accelerating headline growth alongside a shrinking industrial base such as where industry growth nearly halved year-on-year, from 7.46 per cent to 3.96 per cent, should temper any premature declarations of an industrial turnaround.
The non-oil economy, which grew 4.31 per cent and still accounts for 95.84 per cent of real GDP, remains dependent on sectors like trade and real estate that do relatively little to build domestic productive capacity or reduce Nigeria’s exposure to import dependence.
Chief Executive of CFG Advisory, Tilewa Adebajo, said Nigeria still required substantially higher growth to support its population and achieve optimal economic development.
According to him, “Nigerian economy requires annual eight to 10 per cent GDP growth to support 250 million households. On the positive side, we have broken the stagflation stranglehold, as government struggles to consolidate on the reform gains for higher productivity and optimal growth,”
He, however, warned that fiscal weaknesses and the rising cost of servicing the country’s debt continued to constrain economic expansion.
“A very weak fiscal regime and high cost of sustaining a rising debt profile continues to stunt growth in a high interest rate regime,” he said.
At N119.29 trillion in nominal terms, Nigeria’s economy is nominally larger than a year ago by 18.43 per cent, which is a figure flattered considerably by inflation.
Strip that away, and the real story of Q2 2026 is one of a country growing, but not transforming: an economy where trading, renting and communicating are outpacing making, building and processing.
For a nation of over 200 million people with youth unemployment still a pressing national concern, the question industry watchers are asking is not whether Nigeria’s GDP grew, it did, but whether this is the kind of growth that can be felt on factory floors, in pay packets, and in the price of what Nigerians can now afford to buy.
Meanwhile, many ordinary Nigerians have questioned the real-life impact of this macro-level growth, pointing out that high inflation and squeezed household incomes continue to affect daily survival.
Taking to X, Nigerians, who refused to accept the report, questioned the economic impact of the country’s GDP growth.
”When lying and self deceit becomes the order of the day. Paper acceleration of economic growth. Leave your comfort zone in Abuja and go to the rural areas. Check if their is an iota of impact of this your junk write up on the lives of Nigerians,” @Barnny_sommy said.
A Nigerian, simply known as Lawrence on X, said: “The interesting question is whether the improvement in the macro numbers is translating into better margins for small businesses.”
“Nigeria’s Q2 GDP growth was 4.43%, up from 3.89% in Q1. But I’d want to see what happens to operating costs and consumer purchasing power first,” he wrote.
@Szim001 asked: “What’s the need for all these needless, senseless and stupid write up when Nigerians are truly suffering?”
Similarly, another X user, known as Nwachukwu, said: “Churning out statistics that have zero effect on society and the social security of the nation.”
“Just wondering what is the essence of your so-called statistical improvements,” he stated.
@ChrisantusGabr1 stated: “How does it affect the life of common men in Nigeria. All these hicky panky and patches all around it’s not 🚫. Let the the 200m masses breathe.”
@MRSOMOLOLAAGUN wrote: “Manufacturing & agriculture are expanding on ur official PDF, but in reality factories are closing & farmers are being slaughtered. Keep fabricating numbers. The only thing accelerating in Nigeria is the rate at which your press releases lose touch with basic human reality. Oniro”
@Idodo_oro wrote: “Yet this is the reality of Nigerians. Uncle Bayo, e beru Ọlorun o. 😂 Nigeria is doing well in your books, but Nigerians are not feeling a booming economy in their pockets or in their everyday lives.”
@KHALYD16 analysed: “GDP can rise while citizens get poorer. Do y’all even understand how GDP is calculated? Because the way you keep throwing GDP growth around like it’s some kind of flex is embarrassing. 🥱
”Inflation can rise faster than incomes.
Population growth can outpace real GDP growth. Economic gains can remain concentrated among a small section of society. GDP growth is not the same thing as improved living standards.”
While the administration views the numbers as proof that the Renewed Hope Agenda and reforms (such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate unification) are working, opposition groups remain critical of the prolonged hardships faced by citizens