Few days ago I watched with reservations Charles Aniagolu’ interview with Atiku on Arise TV Prime Time Show. He came across to me as a man who isn’t stepping aside for anybody and would stop at nothing to clinch the presidential flag bearer of ADC against the principles and ethics of zoning.
In 2023 he played same script, defied the party’ zoning formula and the result was a fragmented PDP . History is about to repeat itself if nobody stops him on his track and pleads he looks retrospectively.
Let someone tell Nigerians and ADC that in the brutal theatre of politics, not every ally wears your colours. Some wear your face, speak your language, command your crowd and still deliver victory to your opponent without knowing it, Atiku may be in this unfortunate mould.
Such is the uncomfortable truth staring Nigeria in the face as 2027 slowly approaches.
At the centre of this unfolding political irony stands Atiku Abubakar—a man whose ambition refuses to dim, whose presence on the ballot has become almost ritualistic, and whose persistence may yet become the most powerful campaign tool for the very man he seeks to unseat, Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
Let us strip sentiment from reality. Opposition politics in Nigeria is not losing because it lacks voices. It is losing because it has too many egos screaming in different directions. Every election cycle repeats the same tragic script, strong contenders, fractured alliances, scattered votes, and a predictable outcome.
And at the heart of this fragmentation is a question many are too polite to ask: At what point does ambition become complicity?.No one denies the constitutional right of any Nigerian to contest. But politics is not a playground for endless personal validation. It is a battlefield of strategy, sacrifice, and timing. When a candidate repeatedly steps forward without building an unbreakable coalition, he risks becoming not a challenger but a divider. A guess Atiku equal fits into this mould if his 2023 political obstinacy is anything to reckon with.
A divided opposition is not an alternative government. It is an advantage to the incumbent. I guess someone should tell Atiku this.
While critics may focus on governance, policies, or performance, the cold truth is this: elections are not won by complaints, they are won by structure, unity, and calculated compromise. Where these are absent, even the most vulnerable incumbent becomes invincible.
While Bola Ahmed Tinubu consolidates power, strengthens alliances, and watches the opposition splinter itself into irrelevance, the question lingers: Is he truly that strong or are his opponents simply that divided?
Atiku Abubakar’s continued presence in the race may excite loyalists, but beyond that circle lies a growing fatigue, a quiet frustration among those who see the bigger picture. Elections are not won by loyalty alone; they are won by arithmetic.In that arithmetic, division is defeat.
This is not an attack. It is a warning. History is unforgiving to those who fail to read the moment. Across nations and across time, incumbents have survived not because they were unbeatable, but because those who opposed them refused to unite. Nigeria stands at that familiar crossroads again. If ambition continues to walk alone…
If egos continue to outweigh strategy…
If unity remains a slogan instead of a structure…
Then the outcome of 2027 may already be quietly written not in the votes that will be cast, but in the alliances that were never formed.
When that day comes, when the dust settles and the results are declared, many will shout, protest, and analyze.But the truth will be far simpler and far more painful:The road to victory was open…but the opposition chose to divide it.
Now is the turn of the South. Atiku should respect that. He went against it in 2023 and the wound it inflicted is still very fresh and painful.
With ADC flag being flown by Atiku, Tinubu had already won waiting for his second term swearing in. Can he be a dispassionate elder statesman? Sacrificing his ambition of being the president which never worked, to support a process that would give Nigerians a fresh breath long denied them?
What would be the most rational thing for Atiku and ADC to do? Field a southern presidential candidate and a Northern vice . If this is done with the mood of the poor masses towards this administration, victory becomes seamless. Anything outside this, Tinubu’ Second Term bid would be delivered to him on a platter of Gold
Jarlath Opara is a creative writer, a columnist, author and social/ political analyst.
@ Facebook Jalarth Uche