By Okechukwu Nwanguma

Nigeria is once again at a familiar crossroads – confronted by deepening insecurity and searching, almost desperately, for solutions. Into this space comes the latest proposal by the Inspector-General of Police, Olatunji Rilwan Disu, outlining a sweeping plan to decentralise policing through the creation of state police over a 60-month transition period.

On paper, the proposal is ambitious – even attractive.

• A two-tier policing system.
• Dedicated funding through a 3% federal allocation.
• Mandatory body-worn cameras.
• Independent oversight through a National Police Standards Board.

It is, by all appearances, a well-packaged reform.

But Nigeria must ask a more difficult question:
Are we solving the problem – or merely redistributing it?

The Temptation of Easy Answers
The argument for state police is simple: Nigeria is too large, too complex, and too diverse for a single, centralised police force.

This is true.

The current structure of the Nigeria Police Force is overstretched, under-resourced, and often disconnected from the communities it serves.

But acknowledging failure at the centre does not automatically justify replication at the states.

Because if we are honest, the problem with policing in Nigeria is not just structure. It is power, accountability, and impunity.

And these problems are not weaker at the state level – they are often worse.

A Dangerous Illusion
Proponents argue that safeguards in the proposal – state police commissions, ombudsmen, criminal sanctions for abuse – will prevent misuse.

But Nigeria is not short of laws. It is short of compliance.

We already have:

• constitutional safeguards
• anti-torture laws
• police regulations
• oversight bodies

Yet abuse persists. Why?

Because institutions are weak, and power is rarely checked.

To assume that state governors – many of whom already dominate state assemblies, local governments, and even traditional institutions – will suddenly respect limits simply because new structures are created is dangerously naïve.

From Federal Failure to Local Tyranny?
History warns us.
From the abuses of Native Authority Police in the First Republic to more recent experiences with politicised vigilante groups, Nigeria has seen how decentralised coercive power can be weaponised.

The risk is clear:
State police could become tools for silencing opposition; instruments for election manipulation; and mechanisms for settling political and personal scores

In states where democratic institutions are already fragile, state police may not enhance security – they may institutionalise repression.

The Real Security Crisis
Let us be clear: Nigeria’s insecurity is not simply a policing problem.

It is driven by poverty and inequality, unemployment and social exclusion, weak justice systems, proliferation of arms, and failure of governance.

No amount of policing – federal or state – can solve these root causes.

As scholars like Etannibi Alemika have long argued, security is not guaranteed by multiplying armed forces, but by addressing the conditions that produce violence.

Yet, instead of confronting these hard truths, we are once again drawn to what appears to be a quicker fix.

The Illusion of Safeguards
The proposal’s safeguards sound impressive:

• body-worn cameras
• performance dashboards
• independent oversight boards

But let us ask:
Who will enforce these safeguards in states where governors control budgets; legislatures are weak; and oversight institutions are compromised?

Without genuine independence and enforcement, these safeguards risk becoming mere window dressing.

A Better Path: Reform Before Replication*
If Nigeria truly seeks effective policing, then the answer is not to multiply structures, but to fix what exists.

• Decentralise the current police operationally and administratively
• Strengthen community policing in practice, not just policy
• Ensure transparency in funding and operations
• Enforce accountability for misconduct
• Improve welfare and training of officers

In other words: reform before replication.

The Risk We Cannot Ignore
The creation of state police, in Nigeria’s current political environment, carries a real danger:
Not of strengthening federalism – but of creating 37 centres of unchecked coercive power.

That is not decentralisation.
That is fragmentation.
And in the wrong hands, it could become something far worse: a decentralised police state.

Proceed With Caution, Not Enthusiasm
There is no doubt that Nigeria needs policing reform. Urgently.
But reform must be guided by realism, not desperation.

State police may eventually become part of Nigeria’s security architecture. But introducing it without first fixing the deeper problems of governance, accountability, and institutional weakness is a gamble the country cannot afford.

Nigeria must resist the temptation to embrace state police as a silver bullet.

Because if we get this wrong, we will not just have a failing police system. We will have many.