Nigeria’s crude oil production declined to 1.39 million barrels per day (bpd) in September 2025, marking a second consecutive month of reduced output.
This was revealed in the latest Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) released on Monday by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
This represents a decrease from 1.434 million bpd recorded in August 2025.
According to the oil cartel, the production figures were obtained through direct communication with Nigerian authorities.
OPEC typically sources its crude oil output data from two channels: direct communication with member countries and secondary sources such as energy intelligence platforms.
The figure is the lowest in seven months so far in 2025 and is below Nigeria’s OPEC allocation of about 1.5 million bpd for the month.
The decline comes after Nigeria had shown signs of recovery in June and July, when output edged closer to the group’s agreed quota following months of underperformance.
Nigeria’s renewed shortfall could be attributed to ongoing crude theft, pipeline vandalism, and technical issues at some oil terminals.
OPEC report comes days after the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) had reported that Nigeria’s crude oil and condensate production dropped to an average of 1.581 million barrels per day (bpd) in September 2025.
The Commission’s report revealed that the September production consisted of 1.39 million bpd of crude oil and 191,373 bpd of condensates.
According to the NUPRC, the decline was primarily due to the three-day industrial action embarked upon by the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN) during the month.
The strike action led to the shutdown of several production and export facilities, disrupting output and export schedules.
In a letter dated September 29, 2025, Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd)’s Group Chief Executive Officer, Bayo Ojulari, informed regulators that the PENGASSAN’s industrial action led to significant production deferments and projected revenue losses from missed crude liftings and reduced gas sales.
Analysts say that the setback could undermine Nigeria’s revenue projections, especially as the federal government is banking on higher oil earnings to support its 2025 budget.
Crude oil remains Nigeria’s biggest foreign exchange earner, accounting for more than 80 per cent of export revenues.
The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC) has pledged to boost output to at least 1.8 million bpd by the end of the year through tighter security measures in the Niger Delta and renewed investment in upstream projects.