By Okey Nwoke
The recently concluded AMAC election was not lost on election day , it was lost long before then.
From the onset, it was clear that the candidate, Moses Paul, was not adequately prepared for the political realities of the FCT. Abuja politics is deeply local and highly structured. It is not driven by emotions, activism, or social media enthusiasm , it is driven by established networks, ethnic voting patterns, grassroots structures, and long-term strategic planning.
Moses Paul entered the race primarily through the backing of the Obidient bloc, who believed positions should be occupied by individuals seen as loyal to Peter Obi. This decision appeared to be influenced by the perception that the sitting House of Representatives member for AMAC, Hon. Joshua Chinedu Obika, had become “disloyal” because of his association with projects commissioned by Nyesom Wike and his relationship with Abure.
However, elections in AMAC have historically followed identifiable voting patterns. When I moved from LP to ADC to contest for Chairman of AMAC, I was in constant communication with Moses as one of the leaders of the Obidient movement. At no point did he indicate interest in contesting until he suddenly picked up nomination forms.
I personally advised him that the pathway to victory in AMAC required strategic ethnic balancing similar to APC’s successful 2016 formula an alliance reflecting the dominant voting blocs, particularly the Gbagyi and Gwandara communities alongside the Igbo bloc. The incumbent chairman, Maikalangu, already had the Gbagyi base secured. The opposition’s only viable strategy was to recreate a balanced ticket capable of disrupting that structure.
His response was that with Peter Obi campaigning for him, victory was assured.
Unfortunately, politics in AMAC does not work that way.
The party leadership, eager to maintain favour with Obi amid coalition negotiations, avoided conducting proper primaries and leaned toward granting Moses the ticket. When I requested a free and fair primary election, it was resisted. Instead of internal democracy, pressure and threats of public backlash were introduced into private discussions. Mo threatened to work against me and the party on twitter if I was given the ticket. I was shocked.
For years, many Igbo stakeholders in FCT had been building toward this election cycle. Structures had been quietly developed since 2022. Community alliances were carefully cultivated. This was seen as a strategic opportunity. However, those long-term efforts were disregarded.
What ultimately happened was not rigging — it was protest voting and structural failure.Hon. Obika, who understands AMAC’s voting terrain deeply, would likely have aligned differently had the ticket reflected strategic balance. Instead, he moved to APC.
Whether one agrees with that move or not, it significantly altered the electoral equation. AMAC politics is council-based and structure-driven. Ignoring that reality was costly.
Campaign management was also deeply flawed. There were complaints from councillorship candidates about lack of inclusion, unilateral decisions, replacement of agents, internal suspicion, and threats of removing duly nominated candidates.
Activism and politics are not the same. Mobilizing crowds for optics is different from mobilizing polling units for votes. Market visits and photo opportunities with national figures do not automatically translate into grassroots electoral strength. Voter apathy in council elections is historically high, and only structured networks bring out reliable voters.
Ethnic arithmetic in AMAC is a political constant. Alienating the two largest voting blocs was what killed ADC. Mo was unpopular.
This was not a stolen election. The margin was too wide to attribute to rigging.
Mo never planned for this election, he took people ideas and felt he could do it, I wish him the best for the future.