Nigeria’s equity market has surged to a capitalisation of N159.73 trillion in 2026, with fixed-income market capitalisation reaching N55.82 trillion, the Group Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of Nigerian Exchange Group (NGX Group), Temi Popoola, has revealed.

Popoola made the disclosure during a presentation at the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Workshop, where he was represented by the Group Chief Strategy Officer, Jumoke Olaniyan. The session was themed ‘Structure and Behaviour of Nigeria’s Equity and Government Debt Markets: Implications for Monetary Policy Effectiveness’.

The NGX Group chief noted that the All-Share Index (ASI) posted a remarkable 60.13 per cent year-to-date return, a figure he said reflects deepening investor confidence even in the face of elevated interest rates.

Despite this headline growth, the presentation sounded a note of caution, observing that market activity remains heavily concentrated in a handful of dominant sectors. Retail participation, it noted, continues to lag, constraining the wealth-effect channel through which monetary policy ordinarily filters down to everyday Nigerians.

Turning to the debt market, Popoola highlighted a telling divergence — the current Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) stands at 26.50 per cent, yet the 10-year sovereign yield sits at 14.95 per cent. He argued this gap signals that markets are pricing in long-term reform credibility rather than simply responding to short-term rate movements. The ASI’s 51.19 per cent return in 2025, delivered against a backdrop of elevated rates, was cited as further proof of this dynamic.

Popoola also raised concerns about the cluttered short end of the yield curve, warning that the simultaneous existence of Treasury Bills, Open Market Operations (OMO) Bills and standing facilities generates competing signals that blur benchmark clarity and undermine policy transmission.

“MPR changes are absorbed across multiple instruments rather than transmitted cleanly through a single benchmark,” he said.

To remedy this, the NGX Group boss called for cleaner benchmark yield curves, more robust forward guidance, deeper secondary market liquidity, broader retail participation and closer integration of capital market data into MPC deliberations.

He further proposed a Transmission Conditions Index (TCI) — a market-based diagnostic tool designed to help policymakers measure how effectively policy signals travel through financial markets. The framework, he explained, draws on real-time data from NGX and other exchanges, underscoring the expanding role of market infrastructure in monetary policy analysis.

Popoola closed with a pointed message to policymakers: “Capital market development is not a separate financial-sector ambition. It is increasingly a macroeconomic necessity.”