By Hosea Parah, Abuja
Nigeria is poised for a notable increase in crude oil production by the second quarter of 2026, with analysts forecasting a return to around 1.8 million barrels per day (mbpd) as long-idled Ogoni fields edge closer to resumption and pipeline security improves across key export corridors.
According to the Nigeria Energy Sector Outlook for Q1 2026, published by the Society of Energy Editors (SEE), the first quarter of the year will be decisive in determining whether the country can convert recent policy breakthroughs and security gains into sustained production growth. Nigeria exited 2025 producing in the mid-1.6 mbpd range, and the report suggests that disciplined execution of current initiatives could unlock the strongest onshore output growth in a decade.
At the centre of the outlook is the planned restart of oil operations in Ogoniland, a project long seen as both a political symbol and a material production opportunity. Analysts describe the Ogoni programme as the single largest potential contributor to the anticipated Q2 uplift, provided critical groundwork is completed in the coming months.
The Outlook identifies several Q1 milestones required to keep the timeline on track. These include formalising a community equity trust to ensure direct local benefits, funding a remediation escrow for environmental clean-up, appointing a credible lead operator or consortium, and commencing early civil works to enable safe site access.
“Early civil works and safe site access in Q1 can de-risk timelines,” the report notes, adding that while preparatory activities are expected in the first quarter, “material volume uplift remains more likely from late Q2 into Q3.”
Security remains a decisive factor. Persistent oil theft and sabotage continue to expose between 50,000 and 80,000 barrels per day to losses, but the Outlook points to progress from coordinated federal–state taskforces and tighter oversight of community surveillance contracts. Analysts stress that additional measures—such as deploying smart pigging and leak detection technologies on high-loss pipelines and prosecuting organised theft networks—will be essential to ensure that any new production reaches export terminals.
Beyond Ogoni, the expected production gains are projected to come from multiple sources. Deepwater assets such as Bonga are forecast to provide stable output, with the Bonga North tie-in described as among the most reliable near-term barrels. Onshore, incremental gains are anticipated from asset optimisation following recent divestments, including Seplat’s acquisition of former Shell operations, alongside improved trunkline integrity reducing unaccounted losses.
A return to 1.8 mbpd would carry significant economic implications. Higher production would strengthen government revenues, improve fiscal flexibility, and support infrastructure and social spending. Increased crude availability would also secure feedstock for the Dangote Refinery and modular refineries, reinforcing domestic fuel supply. Combined with lower fuel imports, stronger exports could ease foreign exchange pressures, support the naira, and reinforce the current disinflation trend.
The Outlook frames Q1 2026 as a defining period. “What happens in the next 90 days will determine whether Nigeria seizes this opportunity,” the report concludes. “Establishing the Ogoni trust, funding remediation, and securing pipelines are not just sectoral priorities—they are national economic imperatives. If executed with discipline, Q2 2026 could mark the transition from recovery to confident growth in Nigeria’s upstream sector.”