By Bola BOLAWOLE
At a point I was in a quandary on how to address Hon. Mudashiru Obasa. What unfolded at the Lagos State House of Assembly presented a dilemma similar to that which confronted journalists after the annulment of the June 12, 1993 presidential election won free and square by MKO Abiola. Should we address MKO as president-elect and winner of the election? Should we not, since the results of the election had not been fully announced and the authority legally prescribed to proclaim the results and declare a winner had not officially done so? In the end, we settled for “presumptive winner”.
After Obasa stormed the Lagos State House of Assembly last Thursday and declared that he was still the speaker and had resumed as such, could we begin to refer to him as Speaker or “factional Speaker”, since there was another Honourable member of the same House; in fact, the erstwhile deputy to Obasa, Hon. Mojisola Lasbat Meranda, also laying claim to the same crown? Last month, the majority members of the Lagos State House of Assembly (36 out of 40, which is more than two-thirds) met and removed Obasa as speaker, replacing him immediately with Meranda, who thus made history as the first female speaker of the House.
So, the media began to refer to Obasa as “former speaker”, “impeached speaker”, and “erstwhile speaker” until news broke that not only did he not take kindly to his removal and was bent on challenging it, but also that the leadership of the All Progressives Congress (APC) was sharply divided over the matter. By his body language and reported laconic statement on the matter, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, who also doubles as the national leader of the APC and godfather of Lagos politics, was against Obasa’s removal. For him to declare Obasa’s removal as a “coup” speaks volumes not only about the impeachment tragi-comedy but also about the APC governance of Lagos state as a whole.
Whatever anyone may say, give it to Tinubu; the tried and tested political war horse has been around long enough to smell rebellion from afar. If the change of guards at the Lagos State House of Assembly was a coup as Tinubu had allegedly posited, who was it directed against? We already knew the protagonists of the (political) coup as the 36 members of the House. Call them the official face of the coup. Every coup has its sponsors, planners, and financiers: Were there any such behind-the-scenes movers, instigators, and executors of the coup that removed Obasa from office? Who were they and what was their motive or motivation?
On the surface, the target was Obasa but looking more closely, it was the leadership of the party that was being surreptitiously or inadvertently challenged. The godfather thus saw himself on trial. So Obasa needed not lift a finger. The party and the godfather would fight this battle for him because it was their battle, not his. The leadership of the Governance Advisory Council (GAC) in Lagos State said that much when its chairman said they were not consulted before the House moved against its speaker. The party, too, was not consulted. And, of course, the godfather was kept in the dark!
Who does such a thing? Which loyal party man or woman commits such a sacrilege? And which sensible leader allows it? One day, having grown wings, the same House will move to impeach the governor – and lots more! That, in my opinion, was the crux of the matter; not Obasa. And it was in the realization of this that Obasa gallivanted and beat his chest all over the place. The House – or those behind them – made the tactical error of thinking they could act independently of the party, the GAC, and the godfather. They might have acted altruistically, but failed to factor into their calculations that party leaders could view things differently.
So, those supporting Obasa might not have done so for Obasa’s sake but for their own cause. This, then, is a case of enlightened self-interest. Ultimately, politics, as the former Ekiti State Gov. Ayodele Fayose once told me, is a game of self-interest. Besides, our laws, as our judges have repeatedly interpreted, recognise political parties as the custodian of the mandate that puts politicians in office. That was how Rotimi Amaechi and Yahaya Bello became governors in Rivers and Kogi states respectively.
So, what does this tell us: It speaks unequivocally about party supremacy and, flowing from that, party discipline. Without discipline in every facet of life, not much can be achieved. Many of us may not like to hear this, but the truth is that our feeding bottle democracy ties every political office holder to the apron-string of political parties and, by extension, political godfathers. Should anyone think they are their own masters and make any attempt to exercise such freedom, they would be rudely awakened to the reality that they are not. Quite unfortunate but that is the lesson the “rebels” of the Lagos State House of Assembly have learnt the hard way. Fed the humble pie, they have all retreated, their tail behind their legs.
But what next? Conflicts of interest are best resolved through negotiation and compromise. No winner-takes-all! Remember, I asked in “Ondo, Lagos, Osun: Sheathe the sword” whether the rumblings in the Lagos State House of Assembly was “Storm in a tea cup” or “Bearding the Lion in its lair”. The “coupists” have surrendered. After the scare, the party leadership should be keen to make concessions to keep its house intact. Witness what is happening in Rivers State, for example!
Tell me, what is the difference between the Rivers State governor, Siminalayi Fubara, presenting the state budget before a four-member House of Assembly and Obasa presiding over a so-called plenary with only three or four members in attendance? Could anyone have imagined that such shenanigans would happen anywhere in the politically-savvy, cosmopolitan and enlightened South-west, not to talk of in Lagos, the country’s commercial nerve centre and the flagship of its 36 states? Last week’s Supreme Court judgment, which decidely went against Fubara, is instructive in this regard.
Shakespeare says all is well that ends well, but it is difficult to say if all has ended well in the Lagos State House of Assembly. What is certain, however, is that the damage already done to Lagos APC is monumental. It is obvious to everyone now that there are cracks on Lagos APC’s wall; and this in a state it has controlled without a break since the country’s return to civilian rule in 1999! It is said that there is no love lost between Obasa and the state governor, Babajide Sanwo-Olu. The governor has denied having a hand in Obasa’s travails but that does not paper over the gaping holes that reportedly separate the two. Obasa is also said not to be the darling of many GAC members and that became very clear to the public during the impeachment saga when the GAC members for the very first time viciously disagreed openly, singing discordant tunes.
United we stand, but divided we fall and a house divided against itself cannot stand. When the APC’s house in Osun state got similarly divided against itself, it fell. Says Santayana: “Those who fail to learn from history are often condemned to repeating its mistakes”. Echoes Hegel: “The only thing that we learn from history is that we learn nothing from history”. Learn nothing; forget nothing!
BREAKING NEWS: The above piece was written before new developments on the Lagos State House of Assembly saga made the headlines…The combatants have all been ordered to return to status-quo ante. One simple way to summarise this is that party discipline trumps all, although this will be differently interpreted. It will be seen by some as victory for Obasa and the godfather(s) behind him and defeat for Meranda and her backers. The APC, if it is wise, will see this scare as a warning signal and wake up to the call that all is not well within its fold. It has a mountain to climb on the road to 2027; especially if a “no victor, no vanguished” policy is not genuinely and rigorously enforced.
The opposition should see this as a golden opportunity it must seize with both hands to try and change the narrative of Lagos state come 2027. Many onlookers are likely to be disappointed that democracy has, again, been truncated and political apathy may increase, which is a very dangerous vote of no confidence in the entire political process. Where this occurs, democracy itself is in danger. .
On the whole, expect the APC’s approval rating to nose-dive as a result of the short-lived Lagos State House of Assembly logjam.
Importantly, however, we should watch out for the simmering discontent over the dichotomy between who is a Lagos indigene and who is a migrant to avoid a Yoruba-on-Yoruba violence, which has been loading since 1999 but whose undercurrents have now poignantly shot to the fore with the Obasa versus Meranda saga. Let a word be enough for the wise!