Local participation surges 191% in four months as foreign flows moderate, signalling a structural shift in Nigeria’s equities market

Domestic investors have seized control of Nigeria’s equities market in a way that few analysts anticipated at the start of the year, tripling their inflows on the Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX) and reshaping the structural composition of trading activity in the process.

Data from the NGX Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI) reports show that domestic inflows climbed to N2.74 trillion between January and April 2026, a 191 per cent jump from the N940.8 billion recorded in the corresponding period of 2025. The surge helped propel total market inflows to approximately N3.05 trillion, more than double the N1.36 trillion posted in the first four months of last year.

The momentum was sustained across all four months. Domestic inflows rose from N381.36 billion in January to N747.36 billion in February, before peaking at N813.17 billion in March and holding near that level at N797.96 billion in April, a striking contrast to the same period in 2025, when monthly inflows ranged only between N205.95 billion and N281.28 billion.

The result is a decisive rebalancing: domestic investors now account for nearly 90 per cent of total inflows, up from roughly 69 per cent a year ago.

Following the National Pension Commission’s decision to raise equity exposure limits for Retirement Savings Account Funds, analysts estimate the move could channel close to N1 trillion in fresh liquidity into the NGX. With total pension assets now surpassing N26 trillion, the recalibrated limits allow Pension Fund Administrators to direct more capital toward equities.

Foreign inflows stood at N312.46 billion in the first four months of 2026, down 25.7 per cent from N420.33 billion in the same period of 2025. However, market operators caution against reading too much into that headline decline. The 2025 figure was heavily inflated by an exceptional N349.97 billion spike in March of that year — well above trend levels in any other month. Stripped of that one-off surge, foreign participation last year was considerably weaker than the 2026 data suggest.

In 2026, foreign inflows have followed a more measured trajectory: N47.86 billion in January, N66.71 billion in February, N107.05 billion in March, and N90.84 billion in April.