Fresh concerns have been raised  over Nigeria’s debt burden with the outlook for 2026 indicating new borrowings at about N29 trillion.

The Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG), Nigeria’s foremost economic think-tank, giving a verdict in the May 2026 edition of its Debt Burden Monitor released on Thursday, said that debt pressure is persisting beneath surface stability, adding that Debt Burden Index (DBI) is signaling elevated fiscal strain.

It said,  “Nigeria’s debt profile presents a nuanced but concerning picture as the economy transitions from 2024 into 2025.

“Headline indicators suggest a degree of stabilisation, yet underlying fiscal pressures remain elevated when assessed through a more comprehensive lens”.

The think tank noted that Nigeria’s public debt-to-GDP ratio rose sharply to 40.6 per cent in 2024, reflecting continued reliance on borrowing to finance fiscal deficits and bridge revenue shortfalls.

It added that the divergence between the declining DBI and rising debt-to-GDP ratio showed that the country’s underlying fiscal vulnerability remained significant.

The NESG said its review of Nigeria’s 2025 debt outlook showed that debt pressure remained elevated throughout the year, with the DBI rising to 78.4 points in the first quarter and peaking at 79.6 points in the second quarter before moderating slightly to 76.2 points in the third quarter and closing the year at an estimated 79.2 points.

“This pattern indicates that debt pressure has not structurally eased but instead fluctuates within a high-stress band,” the report noted.

The NESG said improvements in conventional debt ratios were masking deeper fiscal problems, stressing that Nigeria had yet to make a decisive shift towards debt sustainability.

“Overall, the 2024-2025 transition does not yet reflect a decisive shift toward debt sustainability. Rather, it signals a system making only marginal adjustments, with improvements in headline ratios masking persistent structural imbalances,” the report added.

The warning came after the Debt Management Office (DMO) disclosed that Nigeria’s total public debt rose to N159.28 trillion as of December 31.

The DMO also said debt service climbed to about N16 trillion during the year, driven by rising domestic interest payments and sustained external debt obligations, even as the country’s debt structure remained largely tilted towards domestic borrowing.

The group identified debt service-to-revenue obligations as the major driver of fiscal strain, warning that liquidity pressure remained high despite changes in debt stock indicators.