Global crude oil prices, tracked by Brent, have dropped more than 6% so far in October, deepening year-to-date decline to over 17% in 2025.

Oil, which began the year around $74 per barrel, now struggles at $62 as it tries to hold above the $60 mark.

Analysts point to trade tensions between the United States and China, along with uncertainty surrounding U.S. economic policies, as major factors behind the decline.

“While talks between the two sides continue, the Chinese side has vowed to ‘fight to the end’ if necessary—and oil producers are sensitive to such rhetoric,” said Suvro Sarkar, an analyst at DBS Bank. 

Adding to the pressure are expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice more before the end of the year, following an earlier 0.25% reduction that lowered the federal funds rate to between 4.00% and 4.25%.

Although lower rates ease borrowing costs for corporations, they also make the U.S. economy less appealing to investors seeking higher returns.

With oil more recently showing a positive correlation with U.S. economic performance, the weaker dollar and slowing growth outlook are now weighing more heavily on prices