The Chief Executive Officer of TotalEnergies, Patrick Pouyanne, has warned that a prolonged war in the Middle East could have severe consequences for economies around the world.
Speaking in an interview with Chinese state broadcaster CGTN on Sunday, Pouyanne said the global economic outlook could worsen significantly if the conflict drags on beyond six months.
“If it’s more than six months, we will have some real impacts. All the economies of the world will be damaged,” he said.
The warning comes amid escalating tensions involving Iran, which has reportedly moved to effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for joint strikes by the United States and Israel.
The Strait of Hormuz is a critical global oil transit route, and its disruption has significantly constrained supply, sparking fears of rising inflation and slower economic growth worldwide.
Pouyanne explained that under normal conditions, about 20 per cent of global oil production passes through the strait.
However, the current situation has left a substantial volume of crude stranded.
“With what is stuck today, you have 10 million barrels of oil per day which cannot exit the Gulf,” he said.
The TotalEnergies boss stressed that replacing the disrupted supply would be extremely difficult.
“And we cannot find the oil elsewhere in the planet,” he added.
Pouyanne spoke on the sidelines of the China Development Forum in Beijing, where global business leaders gathered to discuss economic challenges and opportunities.
Despite the disruption, Pouyanne noted that the global economy could withstand the shock if the conflict remains short-lived.
According to him, existing oil inventories and supply management mechanisms are helping to cushion the immediate impact.
“If this conflict lasts three, four months, we can swallow it. Today we manage to amortise this shock because we have inventories,” he said.
However, he warned that a prolonged crisis extending beyond six months would pose serious risks to global economic stability.
Pouyanne expressed hope for a quick resolution to the conflict, stressing the need to stabilise global energy supply chains.
“So again, I hope we’ll find solutions quickly for this war,” he said.