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Oil prices slid sharply on Monday as expectations of fresh OPEC+ supply increases and the resumption of crude exports from Iraq’s Kurdistan region eased concerns about shortages, reversing last week’s rally that was fuelled by geopolitical risks.
Brent crude futures dropped 3.5 per cent, or $2.42, to $67.71 a barrel, while US marker West Texas Intermediate fell 3.7 per cent to $63.32. The declines followed the strongest weekly performance since July, with both benchmarks gaining more than 4 per cent amid disruptions to Russian exports caused by Ukrainian drone strikes.
Traders said Monday’s pullback reflected shifting sentiment as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known as OPEC+, prepared to sign off on another increase in output when ministers meet on Sunday. Three people familiar with the group’s deliberations said the alliance was expected to confirm an additional supply of at least 137,000 barrels per day for November, part of a broader effort to claw back market share after months of high prices.
“With OPEC+ pivoting toward market share, fundamentals look softer and oversupply concerns prevail,” said Claudio Galimberti, chief economist at consultancy Rystad Energy.
The return of Kurdish oil to global markets added to the bearish tone. Flows through the pipeline linking northern Iraq to Turkey’s Ceyhan port resumed at the weekend for the first time in more than two years, the Iraqi oil ministry confirmed. Exports were running at about 150,000–160,000 bpd on Monday and are expected eventually to reach 230,000 bpd, according to two industry sources.
The restart comes after prolonged political and contractual disputes had choked off exports, depriving global markets of a key medium sour crude stream. Traders said the resumption could help ease tightness in Mediterranean refiners’ feedstock supply.
Monday’s sell-off came despite intensifying geopolitical risks. Ukraine last week struck multiple Russian energy facilities in a campaign designed to disrupt oil product exports, pushing Moscow to retaliate with one of its most sustained aerial assaults on Kyiv since the invasion in 2022.