By Taiwo Olanegan

I did not believe it when I heard that the Dangote refinery’s capacity is 650,000 barrels of oil per day. Where would the billionaire get that feed stock (crude oil) volume? Is he going to lay pipes from Escravos to Lagos? At that time, our production figure was 1.8m bpd. Would the lOC agree to sell 30% of production volume to Dangote? Where will he get the forex to buy such? And which market would receive his refined products, knowing that the FG was frenetic about making Warri and Port Harcourt refineries to work?

The oil industry is a global cartel… Nigeria’s age-long economic and security challenges are not far from the yo-yo and high-level manipulations in the global oil industry. These intrigues are intentional, international, and sometimes wicked in every sense of the word. That’s why, since 1999, almost all our presidents have added the ministerial supervision of NNPC to their job.

Oil politics is ballistic… When I gave an opinion that the recent cement scarcity and price hike was a war between Tinubu’s Kitchen Cabinet and the Dangote Group, folks shouted at me. Cement price is still high in spite of pleadings and threats by the new government. It was a battle Dangote won. But he is not going to win this new war. The powers-that-be and the international oil players are bigger and more experienced than Dangote. His romantic seasons with Goodluck Jonathan and Buhari are over! Dangote’s trade history, his file and use of forex allocated by Godwin Emefiele are with the government. This is a presidency headed by a man who knows some accounting. The figures are suspicious. Dangote would have been arraigned with Emefiele after the EFCC made attempts but the optics would be terrible for him and the government. So the government chose to put a pedal on it. However, a 650,000 bpd refinery is too large a plate for a person. How can only one fellow own a refinery that could cover the petrol needs of West Africa? What happens when he goes into steel and oil exploration?

In the September 2013 edition of Harvard Business Review, the journal warned about the consequences of allowing Dangote to keep the major stake in the proposed refinery “as it would concentrate too much power in one man’s hand”… Antitrust laws, propaganda, and outright denial of feed stock and certifications will force Dangote to the negotiation table.