By Francis Ekeh

President Bola Tinubu has welcomed the World Bank’s latest assessment of Nigeria’s economy as fresh proof that his administration’s reforms are working, while conceding that more must be done to turn macroeconomic gains into better living conditions for ordinary households.

In a statement issued on Sunday by his Special Adviser on Information and Strategy, Bayo Onanuga, the President said the October 2026 Nigeria Development Update, titled Beyond the Federal Purse: How Higher Revenues Reshaped State Priorities, confirmed that the removal of petrol subsidy, foreign-exchange unification and fiscal discipline had begun to stabilise the economy.

“These findings confirm that the difficult but necessary decisions to remove the petrol subsidy, unify the foreign exchange market and strengthen fiscal discipline have raised revenues, stabilised the economy and created fiscal space for every tier of government to invest in its people,” Tinubu said.

The World Bank reported that Nigeria’s real GDP grew by 4.2 per cent in the first half of 2026, up from 3.9 per cent in the same period of 2025, despite pressures from the Middle East conflict. It projected average growth of at least 4.4 per cent between 2026 and 2028.

Inflation also eased sharply from 27.6 per cent in January 2025 to 15.2 per cent in December 2025, although higher global fuel prices linked to the Middle East conflict have slowed the decline. The Bank expects inflation to fall to about 12 per cent by 2028.

The report further found that Nigeria’s poverty rate had stabilised for the first time since 2019, with poverty expected to decline gradually as economic growth outpaces population growth.

According to the Presidency, the World Bank credited reforms introduced since 2023 with raising federation revenues by 69 per cent in real terms between 2023 and 2025, with states emerging as the biggest beneficiaries.

States increased capital spending by 151 per cent in real terms over the same period, directing much of the additional resources to roads and transport, agriculture, energy and housing. Twenty-nine of 33 states shifted spending towards economic infrastructure, while real social spending per person rose in all but one state.

The report also found that internally generated revenue grew in real terms in 31 of 35 states, while 21 states reduced their debt-to-GDP ratio between 2021 and 2025. Nigeria’s overall public debt is projected to fall from 40.0 per cent of GDP in 2025 to 38.1 per cent in 2026.

Nigeria’s external position also improved, with the current account surplus rising to $12.0 billion, or 7.0 per cent of GDP, in the first half of 2026, from $8.6 billion a year earlier. Gross external reserves increased from $45.5 billion at the end of 2025 to $53.8 billion by the end of August 2026.

Despite the positive indicators, Tinubu acknowledged that the benefits of reform have not yet reached every Nigerian household.

“The dividends of reform are becoming visible. But more work remains to ensure they fully translate into better living standards for every household, starting with lower food prices and decent jobs for our young people,” he said.