By Chief. Joshua .D. Ephraim
A reflection on power, poverty, religion and the political destiny of Northern Nigeria
I wrote the following reflection some years ago in response to a Facebook intervention by Alhaji Ramallan Tijjani, in which it was suggested that Northerners “forget too quickly” and that former President Olusegun Obasanjo had supposedly attested to this tendency, suggesting that the distribution of items such as macaroni, spaghetti and other palliatives could make the people forget what had happened to them.
I have always doubted that President Obasanjo would subscribe to such a sweeping and dismissive characterization of an entire region and its people.
Indeed, before attributing such a statement to a former President, one should first establish whether he actually made it.
But even more fundamentally, the proposition deserves to be challenged on its own merits.
CAN THE NORTH REALLY BE DESCRIBED AS A PEOPLE WHO “FORGET”?
I think such a description represents a profound misunderstanding of Northern Nigeria.
Who exactly is “the North”?
The former Northern Region was never a homogeneous society. It contained, and continues to contain, a vast diversity of peoples, languages, cultures, religions and political experiences.
Nigeria itself has more than 250 ethnic groups and hundreds of languages, with enormous diversity concentrated across the northern and middle-belt regions.
To speak of “the North” as though it were a single political person with one mind, one interest and one historical experience is therefore misleading.
There are Hausa, Fulani, Kanuri, Tiv, Nupe, Gbagyi, Bajju, Atyap, Jukun, Berom, Ham, Igala, Igbo, Yoruba and numerous other peoples living across the northern geographical space.
There are Muslims, Christians and adherents of indigenous religious traditions.
There are monarchists and republicans, conservatives and progressives, rich and poor, urban and rural communities, elites and ordinary citizens.
So, when we speak about “the North”, we must first ask:
Which North?
And perhaps an even more important question:
Whose North?
CAN WE BLAME THE PEOPLE FOR WHAT POLITICAL STRUCTURES PRODUCED?
There is an old saying:
You cannot plant corn and expect to harvest ginger or benniseed.
If a political and social system produces poverty, dependency, educational backwardness and political subservience over generations, it is unreasonable to blame the victims of that system for behaving according to the conditions imposed upon them.
The more important question is:
Who created and sustained those conditions?
Colonial rule did not merely divide Nigeria geographically. It also inherited, adapted and institutionalized pre-existing systems of authority and administration.
In parts of Northern Nigeria, the British found established political structures and incorporated them into indirect rule.
The result was not simply the preservation of tradition. It was the transformation of traditional authority into an instrument of modern colonial administration.
At independence, political power did not suddenly become the possession of the ordinary masses.
Much of it remained concentrated within established political and social elites.
That is where our historical conversation ought to begin.
POWER BECAME THE OBJECTIVE
One of the great tragedies of Nigerian politics has been the gradual transformation of political power from an instrument of public service into an end in itself.
Power became something to acquire.
Then something to retain.
Then something to distribute among political allies.
And eventually something to defend at almost any cost.
This phenomenon is not exclusively northern.
It is a Nigerian problem.
But the North provides an especially important case study because of the length of time during which northern political elites exercised disproportionate influence over the Nigerian state.
For decades, political dominance was treated almost as an entitlement.
But political power is never permanent.
History does not sign permanent leases.
Governments change.
Political coalitions collapse.
Generations change.
And power moves.
THE GREAT NORTHERN POLITICAL MISCALCULATION
Looking back at the events surrounding the 2023 election, I would describe what happened not as the “defeat of the North” but as a historic strategic miscalculation by sections of the northern political establishment.
The northern political elite had enjoyed enormous influence over national power for decades.
Yet political influence did not translate into corresponding transformation of the lives of the majority of northern citizens.
Large sections of the region remained poor.
Educational outcomes remained deeply troubling.
Infrastructure remained inadequate.
Insecurity expanded.
Unemployment and underemployment increased.
Millions remained economically vulnerable.
The paradox was striking:
Political power was abundant, but social transformation remained inadequate.
This is where the distinction between power and purpose becomes critical.
WHAT HAPPENS WHEN POVERTY AND RELIGION ARE POLITICISED?
The 2023 presidential election demonstrated, among other things, the enormous power of identity politics.
Religion became a major electoral issue.
Poverty became an electoral issue.
Ethnicity became an electoral issue.
Regional anxiety became an electoral issue.
The Muslim-Muslim presidential ticket intensified these debates.
Many Nigerians opposed the ticket because they believed that, in a deeply religious and divided country, presidential representation ought to reflect greater religious inclusion.
Others defended it as a constitutional and political choice.
But what cannot be denied is that the issue generated powerful emotions across the country.
It is therefore dangerous for political actors to weaponize religion or poverty.
A hungry population is vulnerable.
A frightened population is vulnerable.
A religiously polarised population is vulnerable.
And a politically uninformed population is vulnerable.
The responsibility of leadership is not to exploit those vulnerabilities but to remove them.
AND THEN CAME THE PALLIATIVES
This brings me back to the original argument attributed to Alhaji Tijjani.
Can macaroni, spaghetti, rice, beans, gari, seasoning cubes or small amounts of cash make a people forget?
Of course, temporary relief can influence political behaviour.
But that is not the same thing as making a people forget.
A hungry person will accept food.
A poor person will welcome assistance.
A desperate family will appreciate cash.
That is human nature.
But hunger is not memory loss.
Poverty is not stupidity.
A hungry citizen may accept ₦5,000 today and still remember who made him poor yesterday.
The real tragedy is when political actors mistake temporary gratitude for permanent loyalty.
That is a dangerous misunderstanding of democracy.
THE POOR ARE NOT FOOLS
There is another lesson here.
The poor are frequently described as though they have no political consciousness.
That is unfair.
A poor voter understands the immediate needs of his family.
He understands hunger.
He understands insecurity.
He understands the absence of employment.
He understands when his child cannot attend school.
He understands when his wife dies because healthcare was unavailable.
He understands when he cannot reach his farm.
He understands when kidnappers take over his community.
If, under those circumstances, someone offers him food, money or temporary relief, accepting it does not necessarily mean that he has surrendered his political judgment.
Sometimes it simply means:
“I am hungry today.”
The duty of government is to ensure that the citizen does not remain hungry tomorrow.
THE MUSLIM-MUSLIM TICKET AND THE LESSON IT TAUGHT
One of the most consequential political decisions of the 2023 election was the adoption of the Muslim-Muslim presidential ticket by the APC.
Whatever one’s opinion of that decision, it exposed the depth of Nigeria’s religious sensitivities.
It is also worth remembering that the presidential candidate, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, is married to Senator Oluremi Tinubu, an ordained pastor of the Redeemed Christian Church of God. That fact was publicly known during the campaign and remains documented.
But that fact should not be used to trivialize the concerns of Christians or Muslims.
The larger lesson is that political symbolism matters in a deeply plural society.
A mature democracy must learn to accommodate both constitutional legality and the legitimate sensitivities of its diverse citizens.
THE NORTHERN ELITE MUST ASK A HARDER QUESTION
The question before the North should never have been simply:
“How do we get power back?”
The deeper question is:
“What will we do with power when we get it?”
That is the question that has haunted Nigeria since independence.
Political power without social transformation is largely meaningless.
What good is controlling government if millions of citizens remain uneducated?
What good is occupying the presidency if rural communities remain inaccessible?
What good is controlling political appointments if young people have no jobs?
What good is political dominance if insecurity makes ordinary citizens prisoners in their own communities?
What good is power if the people whose name is invoked during elections remain poor?
The purpose of power is not power.
The purpose of power is service.
THIS IS ALSO A WARNING TO THE PRESENT RULING BLOC
The lesson is not exclusively for the North.
It is equally a warning to whoever controls power today.
Political power changes hands.
No region owns the Nigerian presidency permanently.
No political party owns Nigeria.
No ethnic group owns Nigeria.
No religious group owns Nigeria.
The North once enjoyed enormous political influence.
Today, another political configuration dominates the centre.
Tomorrow may bring another.
That is democracy.
Therefore, the present ruling establishment should learn from the mistakes of those who preceded it.
Do not confuse electoral victory with permanent ownership.
Do not confuse political control with public legitimacy.
Do not confuse temporary popularity with enduring acceptance.
And above all:
Do not repeat the mistake of believing that acquiring and retaining power is itself the purpose of government.
WHAT SHOULD THE NORTH DO NOW?
The North needs a new political philosophy.
Not merely:
“North first.”
But:
“People first.”
Not merely the recovery of political power.
But the recovery of human dignity.
Not merely the return of northern elites to positions of authority.
But the transformation of northern society.
The priorities should be clear:
Education.
Human capital development.
Agriculture.
Industrialization.
Healthcare.
Security.
Women’s empowerment.
Youth employment.
Technology.
Infrastructure.
Good governance.
Accountability.
And above all, the liberation of the ordinary citizen from permanent poverty and dependency.
The North does not need more political messiahs.
It needs institutions.
It needs schools.
It needs industries.
It needs hospitals.
It needs roads.
It needs security.
It needs productive citizens.
And it needs leaders who understand that political office is stewardship.
BUT THE NORTH IS NOT ALONE
There is an even larger lesson for Nigeria.
The problem is not simply “Northern.”
The same elite behaviour exists everywhere.
Every region has its privileged political class.
Every region has its poor.
Every region has its politicians who invoke ethnicity when convenient.
Every region has religious entrepreneurs.
Every region has citizens who are mobilised during elections and forgotten afterward.
The Nigerian problem is therefore fundamentally a problem of political structure, elite accountability and institutional weakness.
We must stop pretending that replacing one regional elite with another automatically solves the Nigerian problem.
It does not.
The objective should be to build a Nigeria in which no citizen needs a political godfather, ethnic connection or religious identity to enjoy the rights of citizenship.
THE FUTURE MUST BE DIFFERENT
The Nigeria we should seek is one in which a child born in Kaduna has the same opportunity to succeed as a child born in Lagos, Kano, Enugu, Port Harcourt, Jos or Makurdi.
A Nigeria in which religion does not determine access to government.
A Nigeria in which ethnicity does not determine employability.
A Nigeria in which geography does not determine whether a citizen receives quality education.
A Nigeria in which political power is decentralised enough to allow communities to participate meaningfully in determining their own future.
A Nigeria in which the purpose of government is not the enrichment of those who govern but the advancement of those who are governed.
MY CONCLUDING THOUGHT
I therefore remain uncomfortable with the proposition that Northerners simply “forget” because they receive macaroni, spaghetti or other palliatives.
That explanation is too simplistic.
People do not forget history merely because they receive food.
They sometimes vote according to immediate survival because political systems have left them with few alternatives.
That is not forgetfulness.
It is the politics of survival.
And the answer is not to insult the poor.
The answer is to remove the conditions that make poverty politically exploitable.
The North must learn from its own history.
The South must learn from the North’s experience.
The present ruling establishment must learn from those who previously held power.
And every Nigerian must learn one fundamental lesson:
POWER IS NOT THE DESTINATION.
POWER IS THE INSTRUMENT.
The real question is not:
Who has power?
The real question is:
What are they doing with it?
If power does not educate our children, protect our communities, create opportunities, strengthen institutions, improve healthcare, secure our farms and restore the dignity of our citizens, then power has failed in its most fundamental purpose.
Political power comes and goes.
Governments rise and fall.
Parties win and lose.
Regions dominate and recede.
But the people remain.
And it is for the people that government ultimately exists.
That, in my humble view, is the lesson we should have learnt yesterday, must understand today, and must never forget tomorrow.
@ J.D. Ephraim is a legal practitioner and public affairs analyst based in Abuja