By Teddy Nwanunobi
The African Democratic Congress (ADC) has reacted to prediction by former Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Babachir Lawal’s prediction that its presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar, would lose the 2027 election, saying that its ticket is not weaker than that of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC).
Reacting to the prediction during an interview on ARISE NEWS on Tuesday, the Special Adviser to the ADC National Chairman on Research, Policy and Strategy, Chille Igbawua, described it as a personal prayer rather than an evidence-based assessment.
Lawal had said in an interview with Symfoni TV that a joint presidential ticket of Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso would have a 70 per cent chance of winning the 2027 election, while Tinubu would have a 50 per cent chance, and Atiku would score “zero.”
He had also declared, “Definitely, Atiku will lose. He will, and I pray he loses.”
Responding, Igbawua said Lawal’s prediction lacked any factual or analytical basis.
“I think the statement that this projection need not be commented upon is a right one. When you just say you are praying—as a matter of prayer, everyone has a right to pray—he said, ‘I pray he loses. He will surely lose. I pray he loses.’ That is not a scientific approach to a projection that you can argue against.
“So, it becomes difficult to argue against a person who has no basis for making a projection,” he said.
He maintained that the ADC was focused on building a credible electoral platform rather than engaging in speculative political projections.
“I believe that ADC has its programmes well set out. I believe that we have one of the most robust manifestos of any political party in Nigeria at the moment. We have a clear-cut policy document that we are going to work on, and our objective has always been—and has not changed—to rescue Nigeria from the drift that we are witnessing continually.
“We are working on what it takes to win an election. So when we speak about winning, we’re not speaking just rhetorics; we’re speaking from the work and the analysis we’re doing,” he said.
Addressing Obi’s exit from the ADC, Igbawua said the former Anambra State governor was not part of the opposition coalition that later adopted the party, insisting he only joined after the coalition had concluded its consultations and selected the ADC as its platform.
“The project started long, long before Peter Obi came in. Let us not make the mistake of thinking that Peter Obi was part of this opposition coalition movement that transmuted into the ADC—he was not. He only came in December last year, 31st of December last year, after everything had been done, and we had gone through all the processes of what we needed to do. We had chosen a platform before he came in,” he said.
On allegations that the party’s presidential primary was flawed, Igbawua defended the process, saying it complied with the party’s constitution, the Electoral Act and the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria.
“I do not insist that this was the cleanest primaries that ever held, but I also agree that there is no political party that has subjected itself to the processes that we did. Certainly Labour Party did not; APC did not. They simply just selected candidates,” he said.
Reacting to Lawal’s assessment that an Obi-Kwankwaso ticket would outperform Atiku, Igbawua argued that comparing the combined strength of two politicians against Atiku alone was misleading, saying any fair comparison should also consider Atiku’s running mate.
“Remember that Rotimi Amaechi contested presidency under APC and came second, so he’s not a push-over either. So if you put a ticket, you must also count the ticket as two people coming together.
“I believe that it is absolutely faulty to suggest that an Obi-Kwankwaso ticket is stronger than an Atiku-Rotimi Amaechi ticket. Certainly not,” he said.
He also defended Atiku’s political standing, noting that the former vice president had previously outperformed both Obi and Kwankwaso in a presidential election.
“Yes, he has good standing. Certainly. They’ve contested against one another in the past and he came out top,” he said.
On fuel subsidy, Igbawua said the ADC was not opposed to its removal but criticised the Federal Government over what he described as a lack of transparency in the management of the savings.
“The issue is that fuel subsidy had been removed. Nobody argued against it… But how you do it is what matters.
“This government has not accounted for the outcomes or the dividends of fuel subsidy removal… I don’t object to fuel subsidy removal… But the management of resources arising from the fuel subsidy is what the cry is about,” he said.
He added that the ADC would unveil more details of its policy agenda in the coming days, with a focus on youth inclusion, women’s participation in governance, security and delivering measurable outcomes in government.