By Yakubu Lawal
The slow creep of oil prices towards the $120 per barrel mark is a nightmarish scenario for US President Trump, even though there has been little fundamental change in the crude oil markets. A slight drop in freight rates and a ubiquitous flattening of backwardated curves lowered differentials of most grades globally, offsetting some of pressures coming from higher crude benchmarks. Be that as it may, an escalating Saudi-Houthi conflict paved the way for another 4% weekly gain, with ICE Brent trading around $117 per barrel.
As reported by Oil Price Intel, a non-sanctioned tanker, the Maltese-flagged Agioi Fanendes, left Russia’s Baltic Sea port of Primorsk with New York listed as its destination, marking the first diesel cargo under Trump’s deal with Moscow with final delivery expected on November 7.
Libya’s NOC said unauthorized individuals shut a pipeline valve serving the Hamada and Tahara fields, cutting output by 50,000 and 40,000 b/d respectively, as recurring protests jeopardize crude production that provides 90 per cent of state revenues.
Europe’s TTF gas benchmark rose above €93/MWh ($30 per MMBtu), the highest since December 2022, as restricted Qatari LNG supply coincided with colder weather and storage peaking below 75%, leaving Europe highly exposed ahead of winter.
Saudi Aramco (TADAWUL:2222) ordered staff to evacuate its Dhahran headquarters and temporarily work from home after the HQ was attacked by the Houthis, the first such move since the Iran war began, with drone strikes also killing two at the Shaybah oilfield.
QatarEnergy is seeking additional long-term cargoes from the US and potentially Asia after securing its first agreement with US developer Cheniere (NYSE:LNG), locking in 4 million tonnes of LNG per year until 2054, as domestic LNG outflows remain constrained.
The US Energy Department is offering 315,000 barrels of diesel, one-third of its Northeast reserve, to ease regional disruptions as global diesel exports decline, while portraying the loan as temporary relief, with first Russian cargoes arriving in early November.
The Japanese government is considering phasing down gasoline subsidies from December as the program costs billions monthly, rapidly depleting a $20 billion budget, with average prices potentially rising from $4.1 per gallon now to $4.35 per gallon in January.
US President Trump declared imported wind turbines and components a national security threat over cybersecurity and foreign dependence concerns, citing a Commerce Department investigation, ordering trade officials to discuss the issue with trading partners.
Indonesia may halt pipeline gas exports to neighbouring countries as Jakarta seeks to prioritize rising domestic demand, potentially a great blow to Singapore as such a move would remove some 7 bcm of supply, equivalent to 45% of the city state’s consumption.
Mexico’s state oil company Pemex pledged to direct $99 billion towards its upstream business in 2025-2030, 80% of its entire investment budget, seeking to counter declining production as crude oil output hovers at a meagre 1.34 million b/d in 2026 to date.
The Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague rejected the Kazakh government’s $12 billion cost claims against international oil majors operating the giant Kashagan field, claiming it is too late to claim costs incurred between 2011 and 2015.
The EU’s draft 22nd sanctions package would add 12 individuals and 105 entities tied to Russian oil production, trading, refining, shipping and logistics, doubling down on pressure as Washington and Moscow discuss broader bilateral economic issues.
UAE authorities closed coastal areas around Umm Al Quwain and launched containment operations after a tanker—the Gem No.2 VLCC struck by missiles two weeks ago—began leaking oil, with currents carrying contamination towards desalination plants.
The Chinese government instructed state oil companies PetroChina, Sinopec and CNOOC to expedite oil exploration and production to shield the country from supply shocks, going beyond the 2% annual growth rate with current oil output at 4.43 million b/d.
Henry Hub gas futures fell to a two-month low of $2.66 per MMBtu as mild weather, recovering offshore supply and above-average US inventories outweigh record LNG demand, with the calendar year 2027 futures falling to a five-year low of $3.09 per MMBtu.
