*Fear unprecedented implications for the sector, economy

*We should be proud of our refinery, Dangote reacts

*Systematic undercutting, welcome devt – former IPMAN President

Despite the promises from the NNPCL and other oil and gas stakeholders that Liquified Petrol Gas (LPG) otherwise known as cooking gas, that the recently skyrocketed price would soon come down, energy experts have maintained that Nigeria may be on the verge of the product’s supply crunch due to Dangote refinery’s systematic price undercutting.

They warned that the refinery’s undercutting strategy underscores the systematic risk of a monopolistic structure within Nigeria’s downstream sector which has unprecedented implications for the sector and the economy.

LPG is a mixture of hydrocarbon gases, mainly propane and butane, with some propylene and butylene that is stored under pressure in a liquid state, making it easy to transport in cylinders or tanks.

However, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Ltd has assured Nigerians that the price of cooking gas will start to reduce in the coming days following the suspension of industrial action by the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria.

The national oil company had claimed that the price of LPG surged due to the PENGASSAN industrial action, which was launched over the dismissal of Nigerian workers at the Dangote Refinery.

The Group Chief Executive of the NNPCL, Mr Bayo Ojulari, who gave the assurance, blamed the recent rise in cooking gas prices on a temporary disruption to loading and distribution during the strike by the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria.

Contrarily, Energy Analyst, Yemisi Olagunju, has alleged that the development is beyond a temporary disruption but a hidden the strategy that would make Dangote the market dominant and also lead to the exposure of the market, as previous suppliers are now wary and hesitant to re-enter the market.

“Prior to the emergence of the Dangote refinery, the primary sources of LPG in the country were domestic gas from the NLNG, supplemented with imports by marketers. However, since January 2025, the Dangote Refinery has systematically undercut and pushed other players out of the market, including the NLNG by aggressively slashing prices.

“This strategy has made Dangote the dominant and de facto sole supplier of LPG over the last eight months. At present, the refinery is not producing or supplying LPG, and sources are unsure why. The market is now exposed, as previous suppliers remain reluctant to re-enter, wary of being undercut again once Dangote resumes operations,” she emphasized.

Expressing concerns on potential supply gap, Olagunju said, “Should importers step in to fill the gap, it would take 2–3 weeks to land the product. This delay could result in a temporary supply gap and price volatility, which is already manifesting.

“While this development provides a troubling preview of what market dominance could look like, especially on PMS, the refinery’s price undercutting strategy underscores the systemic risks of a monopolistic structure within Nigeria’s downstream sector, which has unprecedented implications for sector, and the Nigerian economy,” Olagunju said.

In an exclusive interview, the Chief Corporate Communications Officer, Dangote Group, Anthony Chiejina, declared that life is about change and called for the need to be proud of the domestic refinery rather than fighting its very existence.

Chiejina, who questioned why people would be kicking over the reduction in price, said the marketers were living in comfortable illusion thinking that the refinery would never work.

“When we started this refinery in 2013 and signed the syndicate loan, there were the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN), Depot and Petroleum Products Marketers Association of Nigeria (DAPPMAN), Nigeria Union of Petroleum and Natural Gas Workers (NUPENG), and from 2013 to 2023, they just woke up and started fighting. You can’t sit down because all of you have assumed that the refinery would not work. That was why they were all living in a comfortable illusion.”

“You see, when we started the LPG, we dropped the price and every poor man was happy that the price of cooking gas came down. Why would people be kicking over the reduction in price?

He described the kick as abstract wickedness, while condemning the notion that price reductions phased out marketers from the market.”

“The question is who are they working for? For themselves or for the poor masses? It is abstract wickedness. They never anticipated that a refinery would get up one day and function? These are people that want Nigeria to be under their chain, so that people will be ridiculing the country, mocking the country? Industrialisation is about creating self-efficiency, job generation and saving exchange rate.”

The Dangote spokesperson also lamented the four (4) national refineries that are not producing LPG, expressed optimism that Nigerians would see more of the cooking gas from the refinery.

He said, “The era of kerosene has phased out because people started migrating to gas because it’s cleaner and faster to cook with rather than a stove and charcoal. We started seeing cylinders of varied sizes because a lot of people are consuming gas. But since inflation and things happening, people are now going back to charcoal because gas is high.”

“Now we came and dropped the price, they cried that we came and faced marketers The thing is that, the more we produce, the more the price will continue to go down, and the same is happening in premium motor spirit (PMS). It is when we bring down the price that others will bring down their own.

“You can see the changes they introduced, so, they pad the charges to consumers and the price of fuel will continue to be high. With time, we will start to produce cylinders , including transparent cylinders, so that all these issues will end.”

In a telephone interview with our correspondent, the former President of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN) and the Treasurer of the IPMAN Board of Trustees,  Chinedu Okoronkwo, remarked that the reduction in gas prices is a welcomed development, as it leads to a rise in the number of consumers.

Okoronkwo stated that anyone opposed to the reduction of LPG prices in the country is acting out of self-interest. He urged individuals to concentrate on the nation’s broader economic well-being rather than solely considering the business perspective.

He further emphasised that “the local market should be encouraged.”

“What the Dangote refinery undercutting of LPG portends – affordability will bring inflow into gas usage. Many who are into other alternatives will now shift to the use of gas and this will go a long way of agitating economic activities positively. Take for example, when gas becomes affordable, the average woman selling Akara can immediately shift to using gas rather than going for firewood.

“Systematic undercutting is a welcome development. Anybody that does not want to appreciate it, is selfish. Dangote refinery is producing and Nigeria has abundant gas and a drastic drop in the price is expected.

“People should not be looking at the economic point of business rather than the overall economy of the nation. Moving to clean energy, and emission control are what we should be looking at.

“Dangote refinery existence has helped in reducing pressure on the Naira. Our currency will begin to have strength because it will solve the activities of importers trying to change dollars. Local markets should be encouraged,” Okoronkwo said.