By Milcah Tanimu

Analysts anticipate that inflation in Nigeria will remain elevated in 2025, primarily due to sporadic flooding and challenges associated with the devaluation of the naira currency, according to a recent Reuters poll.

The acute scarcity of dollars in several African countries, including Nigeria, Angola, and Zambia, has strained domestic inflation levels, as these nations heavily rely on single commodity currency inflows, such as crude oil and copper.

While the International Monetary Fund (IMF) previously forecasted a decline in Nigeria’s inflation from the current 33.2 percent to 23 percent by 2025, analysts suggest that inflation will moderate more gradually in countries with better diversified sources of dollar revenues, such as Kenya.

In Nigeria, inflation is expected to accelerate to 29.1 percent this year from an average of 24.5 percent last year before gradually slowing to 17.2 percent next year. The recent monetary policy tightening by the Central Bank of Nigeria, including a significant increase in the monetary policy rate, aims to address inflationary pressures.

However, despite these efforts, high inflation persists, fueled by elevated food prices, which constitute around 50 percent of the Consumer Price Index basket and are minimally impacted by monetary policy. Factors contributing to high food price inflation include recurrent flooding in various regions of the country, escalating fertilizer costs, and ongoing insecurity in key food-producing areas.

In contrast, other African nations like Ghana, Angola, and Zambia are expected to experience a slowdown in inflation rates in the coming years, attributed to various factors such as improved economic conditions and policy measures.

In light of the predicted heavy rainfall for 2024, which has the potential to trigger flash floods, the Nigeria Meteorological Agency has issued advisory warnings to residents living in wetlands and low-lying regions. Recommendations include relocating to higher ground to mitigate risks to lives and property.

The FCT Emergency Management Department has also intensified efforts to raise awareness and implement precautionary measures. Stakeholder engagements are planned to review previous initiatives and develop strategies to enhance safety and minimize flood-related risks in 2024. This includes assessing flash flood-prone areas and implementing necessary interventions to safeguard communities.

Overall, proactive measures and community engagement are crucial to managing the impact of floods and addressing inflationary pressures in Nigeria and other African nations in the years ahead.